Insights on decision intelligence.
2026 State of the Industry: Strategic Category Management
The agentic frontier in direct materials. Benchmarks, buyer-time data, and the playbook leading manufacturers are using to turn category management into a continuously optimized advantage.
Subscribe to the Kodiact blog
New posts on direct materials and decision intelligence, delivered to your inbox. Personal or work email — both welcome.
Commodity Prices Fall in 2027. Your Ingredients Do Not.
The World Bank published its Commodity Markets Outlook on October 28. The headline grabber is a 23% rise in the global commodity index this year, followed by a projected 7% drop in 2027. That second number is going to circulate. You'll see…
The Sunday Brief, November 1, 2026: Rising energy prices and high interest rates compress supplier margins
The European Central Bank maintained its deposit rate at 2.50% on October 29 following two rate hikes earlier this year, while euro area inflation reached 3.8% in September. Brent crude's expiring December contract settled at $117.64 on…
The Agentic Sourcing Prize Sits in COGS, and the Hard Part Is the Model Underneath
In direct materials, agentic sourcing pays off only when every agent works from one canonical model linking market prices, contract pricing mechanics, volumes and the standard cost and PPV cycle. Building and maintaining that model is…
What Lindt’s Pricing Misstep Teaches Us About Input Costs
When raw material prices surge, pass-through pricing breaks down if you model cost exposure and shopper demand at different levels of detail. Connecting real-time commodity scenarios directly to SKU-level COGS—hedges included—turns a blunt…
The Sunday Brief, October 25, 2026: Premiums and gas, not exchange prices, now set your European input cost
Dutch TTF gas traded at €88.41 per MWh on 19 October, about triple the €30 to €31 level before the Gulf war, and EU storage stood at 74.3% full on 18 October against a mid-October average near 86%. LME three-month aluminium sits slightly…
The two-year lag that makes category expertise look like overhead
The cost of a weak raw materials decision reaches the P&L roughly two years after it is made and is almost never traced back to the decision, which is why cost programs treat category expertise as overhead, and why that calculation breaks…
AI Can Think Fast, But You Can’t: Why Direct Materials Hits the Judgment Wall First
McKinsey dropped an article last week that I’ve practically memorized at this point. It’s called The judgment bottleneck: Balancing AI and human speeds in strategy, written by Alex D'Amico, Bruce Delteil, Laura LaBerge, and Matt Banholzer…
Data Is Cheap. Judgement Is Expensive.
Every procurement team I talk to is drowning in data. Commodity price feeds, weather forecasts, freight indices, supplier financials, tariff updates, news alerts—you name it. Most of it costs next to nothing to collect, and a lot of it…
Sunday Brief (Oct 18, 2026): Between Gulf shipping attacks, low gas reserves, and a drying Rhine, your costs and lead times are officially linked
On October 16, Dutch TTF natural gas hovered near €86.10 per MWh—marking its third weekly rise in a row (up almost 6%). Meanwhile, European storage is sitting at just 74% full, well behind the mid-October average of 86%. Brent crude…
Twice the Pace, Same Headcount: Decision Speed Is Now the Real Procurement Metric
Bain & Company published new research this week on AI in procurement, covered by Procurement Magazine on October 15. Expert Partner Flavio Monteleone and Partner Thomas Lagner report that companies redesigning procurement around AI see up…
Why Every CPO Needs to Read McKinsey’s Latest Mining Report
When McKinsey recently dropped their Global Materials Perspective 2026, it mostly targeted the metals and mining sectors, with brief mentions of plastics, paper, and building supplies. On the surface, it’s easy to skip if you aren't…
The Sunday Brief, October 11, 2026: Crude has rerouted around Hormuz. LNG has not, and gas-linked costs carry the winter risk.
Qatar extended its LNG force majeure on September 28 through November and into early December. On October 9, ENTSOG reported EU gas storage at 72% on October 1 against 83% a year earlier, with Germany at 59%. A winter ending March at 30%…
Nobody Ever Got Fit From a Free Gym Trial
Last year MIT’s Project NANDA published a number that went round the world. Roughly 95% of enterprise generative AI pilots produced no measurable profit-and-loss impact, despite an estimated $30 to $40 billion of enterprise spending.
The Sunday Brief, October 4, 2026: A Prohibition Has No Price, and Section 338 Now Bars Canadian Whey and Molasses
At 12:01 a.m. Eastern on September 29, 2026, the United States stopped admitting 68 tariff lines of Canadian goods under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. The lines include whey, molasses and non-alcoholic beer, plus alcohol and…
The Sunday Brief, September 26, 2026: Canada's Tariff Turns Into an Outright Ban Monday, and Chinese Tin Mill Steel Just Picked Up a Second Duty
Here is the short version. At 12:01 a.m. Monday, the 50 percent tariff on Canadian dairy, alcohol, vehicles and ATVs stops being a tariff and becomes an outright import ban, and nobody has challenged it in court yet. Two days before that…
The Sunday Brief, September 20, 2026: A Refining Margin Blowout, Not a Crude Price Spike, Pushes US Diesel Up Nearly 18 Percent in Six Weeks
US diesel reached $6.285 a gallon for the week ending September 14, 2026, up 17.5 percent in six weeks and up 5.3 percent in the final week alone. The driver is a record refining margin, not the crude price. Three other cost events landed…
The Sunday Brief for September 13, 2026: Input prices are jumping twice as fast as output prices, snapping August's downward trend.
Covering the week of September 7 through September 13, 2026.
The Sunday Brief, 29 August 2026: Classification decides your US exposure, origin marking decides your Canadian one
The United States 50 percent Section 338 duty on listed Canadian goods took effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on 22 August and ran through its first full week. On 26 August Canada answered with counter-tariffs of 15, 25 and 50 percent on…
The Sunday Brief, 23 August 2026: a 1930 statute overrode your USMCA certificate at midnight, and the scope is set by tariff line, not by sector
At 12:01 a.m. Eastern time on 22 August, an additional 50 percent duty took effect on 554 eight-digit tariff lines of Canadian origin, imposed under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. USMCA origin gives no relief. The scope reaches far…
The Sunday Brief, 16 August 2026: A duty annex and a river gauge, not demand, repriced direct materials this week
At 12:01 a.m. eastern on Wednesday 19 August, an additional 50 percent ad valorem duty attaches to several hundred Canadian-origin product lines under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, and USMCA preferential origin gives no relief.…
The Sunday Brief, August 9, 2026: One Canadian tariff with a fixed date, one metals proposal still open for comment
Two federal trade actions landed this week under different laws, on different clocks, and with different room to respond. Section 338 duties of 50 percent on about 20 billion dollars of Canadian goods take effect August 19, 2026, at 12:01…
The Sunday Brief — July 26, 2026: Two Tariff Regimes, Two Different Rulebooks
USTR's July 24 Section 301 forced-labor regime hits 60 economies at 10% or 12.5%, with USMCA and CAFTA-DR goods exempt. Four days earlier, Section 338 duties of 50% landed on Canadian goods with no USMCA defence at all. Supplier delivery times have worsened for 11 straight months while input inflation re-accelerates. Total landed cost and decision velocity are the new margin battleground.
The Sunday Brief — July 19, 2026: Margin at Risk — The Escalating Cost of Tactical Inertia
The past seven days underscored a structural shift in the macroeconomic environment that manufacturing executives can no longer manage through reactive, traditional sourcing cycles. Industrial supply chains are caught between asymmetric…
The Sunday Brief — July 12, 2026: The Convergence of Policy and Physical Sourcing
Trade policy has overtaken physical logistics as the primary source of supply chain disruption. USMCA uncertainty, EU Regulation 2026/1455, and a structural copper cost floor are compressing margins — decision velocity, not forecast accuracy, is the differentiator.
The Sunday Brief — July 5, 2026: The Compressed Peak
A pre-emptive peak season is frontloading imports before the July 24 Section 122 expiration, spiking Transpacific freight and warping copper pricing. Margin defense now depends on total-value sourcing and decision velocity.
The Sunday Brief — June 28, 2026: The June Reset
De-escalation looks like relief, but stockpiles are thin, metals tariffs hold at 50%, and Section 301 is spreading. Forecast tolerance now beats forecast accuracy.
The Sunday Brief — June 21, 2026: The Illusion of Relief
A 60-day Hormuz reopening masks structural volatility. Crude is falling, metals are surging, and margin protection now depends on decision velocity.
The Quiet Revolution in Direct Procurement: How Context, Reasoning, and Human Judgment Compound
Direct procurement has always run on the judgment of a few exceptional people. For the first time, we have a credible way to scale it.
The Sunday Brief — June 14, 2026: The Price of Delay
Front-loading, geopolitical compression, and the new localism are tightening operating margins. The cost of tactical delay is rising exponentially.
The Next Supply Chain Crisis Won't Start With Your Supplier
For the last decade, procurement teams have focused on optimizing cost. But the next disruption may not start with a supplier. It may start with a material.
The New Calculus of Margin: Sourcing and Resilience in the Parallel Era
Global supply chain volatility is back at a three-year high, the EU's BPA ban hits in July 2026, and the old sequential procurement playbook is bleeding margin. Here's how parallel decision networks defend the P&L.
The Sunday Brief: The Human-Agentic Mandate in Direct Procurement
BCG's May 2026 brief confirms it: layering basic AI on stable planning software is no longer enough. The mandate is a total operating-model shift to autonomous, reasoning multi-step agents — unlocking 2–5% revenue uplift and 2–4 pts of EBITDA.
Congratulations Beroe and Kearney — The "System of Data" Is No Longer Sufficient to Protect Margins
The Beroe × Kearney MAX launch validates a structural shift: data subscriptions and static consulting frameworks can no longer protect manufacturing margins. The new executive baseline is continuous intelligence and productized buyer judgment.
The Sunday Brief — The Shrinking Window of Execution
Structural copper deficits, tariff volatility, and digital sourcing consolidation are compressing margins. Decision velocity — not negotiation leverage — now defines the winners.
Beyond the Dashboard: Why the Next Era of Enterprise Procurement Belongs to Systems of Judgment
ERPs gave us Systems of Record. BI tools gave us Systems of Intelligence. The next frontier — Systems of Judgment — captures the tacit expertise that actually protects enterprise margin.
The Sunday Brief: The Real Cost of Delayed Procurement Decisions
For CPOs and CFOs in manufacturing, the traditional lag in identifying direct material variances is a direct threat to the bottom line. Here is how modern automation closes the gap between disruption and margin protection.
The Sunday Brief: The Geographic Regulatory Split & The Multi-Protein Squeeze
Sequential decision-making is a quiet margin killer. From the UK–EU BPA regulatory split to the $500M cattle supply crisis, here's how Agentic AI reclaims 40% of category manager capacity.
The Innovation Marketplace — Procurement as a Co-Designer of Value
Design-to-Value is delivering 30% faster time-to-market. Here's how leading F&B companies are turning procurement into a top-line growth engine.
Anticipatory Resilience — Converting Global Volatility into a Competitive Moat
76% of supply chain executives expect continued disruption in 2026. Anticipatory intelligence turns volatility from a vulnerability into market-share advantage.
The End of "Selective Triage" — How Cognitive Sourcing Solves the F&B Productivity Gap
Procurement workloads are rising 8% while headcounts decline. Cognitive sourcing closes the gap by reclaiming up to 40% of category manager capacity.